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Observed o budbreak bb and full bloom fb start dates with the predicted p dates RegCM3. Indicator analysis results Seven climatic indicators are considered.

First the values of the indicators are calculated for the period of observations Then the same a bináris opciók jövedelmező mutatórendszere are calculated regarding the time slicebased on the outputs of RegCM3. The future predictions are represented first for the base bloom period together with its day pre-bloom-period calculated as the average of the observed endpoints of the bloom periods st nd day of year.

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Supposed that the phenology model predictions of the full bloom starting dates days earlier can be applied, the indicators are calculated for the analogous bloom period which is a period shifted 7-day earlier as the base bloom period.

Table 1.

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Means of climatic indicators of bloom with day pre-bloom period, Újfehértó calculated based on historical data and on RegCM3. The prediction of the RegCM3.

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According to the RegCM3. However, in case phenology stages come earlier, a significant decrease is expected. In some years, it attained even 25ºC, and it was 16ºC only in others.

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The RegCM3. It means that bloom may of milder temperature condition opció megszerzése the future. The prognosis shows a slight, insignificant increment. These efforts are jeopardized by the unstable, changing climate, warming up, unbalanced precipitation as well as the increased frequency and intensity of weather anomalies.

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Future predictions should be regarded for strategies of adaptation that are needed to be developed. Not only the changes of climate and phenology and their impacts but also the possible change of the way of plant respond should be researched.

To this regular monitoring and high level, comparable data recording is necessary.

Intensive cooperation with growers and decision makers should be improved. In one hand, warmer climate makes possible to grow varieties with higher heat accumulation demand, in other hand more frequent and more serious extreme events increase the risk of production.

The symptom of phenology drift calls the attention to the need of new adaptation strategies which are surely unavoidable and urgent Diós et al. References Bartholy, J. International Journal of Global Warming 1, Bindi, M.

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Model description. Vitis 36 2 — Model validation. Bootsma, A. Carbonneau, A.

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International Journal of Climatology, Cesaraccio, C, Spano, D. L, Duce, P. For Meteorol. Eppich, B.

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Ferenczy, A. Giorgi, F.

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Marinucci, and G. Bates Development of a second generation regional climate model RegCM2 i: Boundary layer and radiative transfer processes, Mon. Haenninen H.

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Does climatic warming increase the risk of frost damage in northern trees? Plant, Cell and Environment Houghton, J. Cambridge University Press, 4th ed. ISBN p.

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